Weights: Valuation 50% · Recession 25% · Sentiment 25%
Each model’s SD is a z-score vs its own history (usually since 1990), signed so +SD = bearish / expensive / risky for the composite, then capped at ±2. Fear gauges (VIX, wide credit spreads, high EPU, low consumer confidence) flip to contrarian bullish.
Signal tracking starts on the first saved composite. Prices before that date are shown in gray. No composite history is estimated. Colored marks are saved readings, not a backtest of strategy returns.